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Cobreloa vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:30

Cobreloa

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +2.10 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.1%1-15.9%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-18.3%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.7%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-111.0%4+-24.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% — — —

Draw 18.3% — — —

Away win 10.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 70.2% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 72% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa2.8

Deportes Santa Cruz0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.75

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.10 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 71.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportes Santa Cruz (A) 10.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face Deportes Santa Cruz in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Deportes Santa Cruz 10%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Cobreloa and 0.7 for Deportes Santa Cruz (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.62 for Deportes Santa Cruz.

Cobreloa vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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