Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B / El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC
El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B
Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:00
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
D 33% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%
Form & verdict
EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.38
GUALACEO SC · PPG 0.88
xG gap -0.19, combined xG 1.52 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
El Nacional face Gualaceo SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Nacional a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Gualaceo SC 36%, so Gualaceo SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for El Nacional and 0.9 for Gualaceo SC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Nacional are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Gualaceo SC.