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El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:00

El Nacional

PPG 0.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Gualaceo SC

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-118.6%0-28.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-112.5%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.8%2-14.2%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 29.4% 3.40 +4.4%

Draw 33.4% 33.3% 3.00 +0.2%

Away win 36.0% 50.0% 2.00 -28.0%

Over 2.5 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

Over 3.5 13.0% 25.0% 4.00 -28.8%

BTTS 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 29.9% 3.34 +11.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 43.3% 2.31 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

D 33% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 21.4%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 14.4%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Nacional0.7

Gualaceo SC0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.38

GUALACEO SC · PPG 0.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.20, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Nacional (H) 30.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.4%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.2%

Gualaceo SC (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Nacional face Gualaceo SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Nacional a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Gualaceo SC 36%, so Gualaceo SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for El Nacional and 0.9 for Gualaceo SC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Nacional are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Gualaceo SC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 0-0.

El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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