Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B / El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC

El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:00

El Nacional logo
El Nacional
PPG 0.38 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Gualaceo SC logo
Gualaceo SC
PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.0%0-118.7%0-28.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.6%1-112.4%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.8%2-14.1%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 30.7%
Draw 33.3%
Away win 36.0%
Over 2.5 33.3%
Over 3.5 13.0%
BTTS 46.4%
Home O1.5 33.3%
Away O1.5 20.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

D 33% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.0%
#2 0–1 18.7%
#3 1–1 12.4%
#4 1–0 14.6%
#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Nacional0.7
Gualaceo SC0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.38

GUALACEO SC · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...
45%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.19, combined xG 1.52 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Nacional (H) 30.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 33.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Gualaceo SC (A) 36.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

El Nacional face Gualaceo SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Nacional a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Gualaceo SC 36%, so Gualaceo SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for El Nacional and 0.9 for Gualaceo SC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Nacional are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Gualaceo SC.

PredictVantage

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