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Grobiņa vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 16:00

Grobiņa

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ogre United

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.0%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 61.0% 1.64 -10.5%

Draw 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Away win 20.3% 21.7% 4.60 -4.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 29.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.0%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 46.4% 60.6% 1.65 -23.4%

Away O1.5 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobiņa1.6

Ogre United0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBIŅA · PPG 0.83

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grobiņa (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -10.5%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Ogre United (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobiņa face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobiņa a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Ogre United 20%, so Grobiņa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Grobiņa and 0.9 for Ogre United (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobiņa are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.50 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Grobiņa vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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