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FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:30

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Liepaja

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.6%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.3%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 33.9% 2.95 +43.1%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 26.9% 46.5% 2.15 -25.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 37.0% 2.70 -11.4%

BTTS 54.0% 64.5% 1.55 -16.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 42.6% 2.35 +8.8%

Away O1.5 36.9% 51.8% 1.93 -28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.4

FK Liepaja1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.17

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 0.73

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +43.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

FK Liepaja (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face FK Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 49% chance, the draw 25% and FK Liepaja 27%, so FS Jelgava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FS Jelgava and 1.2 for FK Liepaja (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.73 for FK Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.6%.

FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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