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Auda vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 16:00

Auda

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

BFC Daugavpils

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.5%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.4%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 59.5% 1.68 -14.5%

Draw 24.0% 25.3% 3.95 -3.1%

Away win 25.0% 25.3% 3.95 -0.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 64.5% 1.55 -5.9%

Over 3.5 37.5% 41.7% 2.40 -10.0%

BTTS 56.1% 64.5% 1.55 -13.0%

Home O1.5 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Away O1.5 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.1%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda1.9

BFC Daugavpils1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.60

BFC DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -14.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.1%

BFC Daugavpils (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face BFC Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 51% chance, the draw 24% and BFC Daugavpils 25%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Auda and 1.1 for BFC Daugavpils (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for BFC Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Auda vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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