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Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

Vasco DA Gama

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mirassol

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.6%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 50.0% 2.00 -0.8%

Draw 26.7% 29.9% 3.35 -6.3%

Away win 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco DA Gama1.6

Mirassol1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 1.60

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vasco DA Gama (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -0.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.3%

Mirassol (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco DA Gama face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco DA Gama a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Mirassol 24%, so Vasco DA Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.0 for Mirassol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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