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A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

A. Italiano

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universidad de Chile

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-113.8%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.9%2-16.4%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 33.3% 3.00 +21.8%

Draw 31.9% 31.7% 3.15 +0.5%

Away win 27.5% 44.2% 2.26 -22.7%

Over 2.5 39.3% 47.6% 2.10 -17.5%

Over 3.5 19.7% 27.0% 3.70 -16.3%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 35.0% 34.7% 2.88 +0.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 42.6% 2.35 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Italiano1.0

Universidad de Chile0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ITALIANO · PPG 1.75

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

A. Italiano (H) 40.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +21.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +0.5%

Universidad de Chile (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Italiano face Universidad de Chile in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Italiano a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Universidad de Chile 28%, so A. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for A. Italiano and 0.8 for Universidad de Chile (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Italiano are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.12 for Universidad de Chile. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.2%.

A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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