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Nublense vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Nublense

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Palestino

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.9%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.1%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 46.3% 2.16 +0.4%

Draw 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -10.7%

Away win 28.3% 31.7% 3.15 -6.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 32.8% 27.0% 3.70 +21.4%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 46.4% 43.5% 2.30 +6.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nublense1.5

Palestino1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.25

PALESTINO · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nublense (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +0.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.7%

Palestino (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nublense face Palestino in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nublense a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Palestino 28%, so Nublense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nublense and 1.1 for Palestino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nublense are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.29 for Palestino. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.4%.

Nublense vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions