Today / Chile - Primera División / U. Catolica vs D. La Serena

U. Catolica vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:00

U. Catolica

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. La Serena

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.4%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.5%1-14.6%1-22.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.3%2-17.5%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-115.1%4+-27.8%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.4% 67.6% 1.48 -1.7%

Draw 17.0% 23.8% 4.20 -17.2%

Away win 16.6% 17.4% 5.75 -2.7%

Over 2.5 72.6% 61.7% 1.62 +17.6%

Over 3.5 52.0% 39.2% 2.55 +32.6%

BTTS 62.6% 59.9% 1.67 +4.5%

Home O1.5 77.3% 66.7% 1.50 +16.0%

Away O1.5 34.6% 28.2% 3.55 +22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.6%

H 66% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 4–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica3.3

D. La Serena1.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.86

D. LA SERENA · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.23 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 66.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -1.7%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.2%

D. La Serena (A) 16.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face D. La Serena in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 66% chance, the draw 17% and D. La Serena 17%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for U. Catolica and 1.0 for D. La Serena (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.86 for D. La Serena. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.6%.

U. Catolica vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions