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Manta FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:00

Manta FC

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.5%0-122.8%0-210.2%0-33.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-110.8%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.8%2-12.5%2-21.1%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 21.7% 4.60 +9.3%

Draw 36.0% 29.9% 3.35 +20.6%

Away win 38.9% 55.6% 1.80 -30.0%

Over 2.5 33.3% 42.6% 2.35 -21.7%

Over 3.5 13.0% 22.2% 4.50 -24.9%

BTTS 46.4% 47.6% 2.10 -2.6%

Home O1.5 20.0% 22.2% 4.50 -6.0%

Away O1.5 25.0% 46.5% 2.15 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

A 39% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.5%

#2 0–1 22.8%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta FC0.5

LDU de Quito0.9

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA FC · PPG 0.80

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.30

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Manta FC (H) 25.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +9.3%

Draw 36.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +20.6%

LDU de Quito (A) 38.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta FC face LDU de Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta FC a 25% chance, the draw 36% and LDU de Quito 39%, so LDU de Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Manta FC and 0.9 for LDU de Quito (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta FC are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.30 for LDU de Quito. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Manta FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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