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Manta FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:00

Manta FC

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-122.6%0-29.9%0-32.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.3%1-110.8%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.9%2-12.6%2-21.1%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 21.7% 4.60 +8.5%

Draw 36.7% 29.9% 3.35 +22.9%

Away win 38.5% 55.6% 1.80 -30.7%

Over 2.5 33.3% 42.6% 2.35 -21.7%

Over 3.5 13.0% 22.2% 4.50 -24.9%

BTTS 46.4% 47.6% 2.10 -2.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 22.2% 4.50 +49.9%

Away O1.5 23.9% 46.5% 2.15 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

A 38% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.9%

#2 0–1 22.6%

#3 1–1✓ 10.8%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta FC0.5

LDU de Quito0.9

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA FC · PPG 0.80

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.30

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.40, combined xG 1.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Manta FC (H) 24.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +8.5%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +22.9%

LDU de Quito (A) 38.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta FC face LDU de Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta FC a 25% chance, the draw 37% and LDU de Quito 39%, so LDU de Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Manta FC and 0.9 for LDU de Quito (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta FC are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.30 for LDU de Quito. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +49.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Manta FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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