Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 40 Toughsheet Community Stadium· Bolton Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Bolton PPG 2.15

5-1 MISS

Stevenage PPG 1.19

Home· +10.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolton face Stevenage in England - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolton a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Stevenage 18%, so Bolton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bolton and 0.8 for Stevenage (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolton are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.19 for Stevenage. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 5-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.3%

Odds: 1.89 EV: +10.2%

Draw 24.0%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -16.0%

Away 17.7%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -30.1%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.5% Odds: 2.00 -9.0%

Over 3.5 24.1% Odds: 3.55 -14.4%

BTTS 45.1% Odds: 1.83 -17.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bolton

1.69

Stevenage

0.81

Model SuggestionHome +10.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.15) vs P(Home)=58.3%