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Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Bolton

PPG 2.15 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Stevenage

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.9% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.7%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.2%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 52.9% 1.89 +10.2%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -16.0%

Away win 17.7% 25.3% 3.95 -30.1%

Over 2.5 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

Over 3.5 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -14.4%

BTTS 45.1% 54.6% 1.83 -17.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.1%

H 58% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolton1.7

Stevenage0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLTON · PPG 2.15

STEVENAGE · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.15) vs P(Home)=58.3%

Win probability 1X2

Bolton (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV +10.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.0%

Stevenage (A) 17.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolton face Stevenage in England - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolton a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Stevenage 18%, so Bolton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bolton and 0.8 for Stevenage (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolton are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.19 for Stevenage. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 5-1.

Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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