Today / Italy - Serie B / Carrarese vs Pescara

Carrarese vs Pescara Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Carrarese

PPG 1.59 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pescara

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+27.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.5%1-17.4%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-17.8%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.9%4+-25.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.9% 43.5% 2.30 +53.9%

Draw 17.4% 29.0% 3.45 -40.0%

Away win 15.6% 34.7% 2.88 -55.1%

Over 2.5 70.7% 55.6% 1.80 +27.3%

Over 3.5 49.7% 33.3% 3.00 +49.1%

BTTS 62.7% 61.7% 1.62 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.7%

H 67% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.1%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carrarese2.5

Pescara1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARRARESE · PPG 1.59

PESCARA · PPG 0.71

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.59), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Carrarese (H) 66.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +53.9%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -40.0%

Pescara (A) 15.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -55.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carrarese face Pescara in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carrarese a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Pescara 16%, so Carrarese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Carrarese and 1.1 for Pescara (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carrarese are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.71 for Pescara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Carrarese vs Pescara Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions