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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+33.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.4%1-13.8%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-16.6%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.6%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.2%4+-115.8%4+-25.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 69.4% 1.44 +5.5%

Draw 17.3% 27.4% 3.65 -22.1%

Away win 9.5% 13.5% 7.40 -17.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 47.6% 2.10 +40.7%

Over 3.5 49.6% 26.0% 3.85 +91.0%

BTTS 52.3% 45.5% 2.20 +15.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 57.8% 1.73 +33.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 17.4% 5.75 +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 73% / xG 3.5-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.7%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 4–0 9.2%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy3.5

Club Atlético Güemes0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 2.60

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.74 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +5.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -22.1%

Club Atlético Güemes (A) 9.5%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Club Atlético Güemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Club Atlético Güemes 10%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.7 for Club Atlético Güemes (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.56 for Club Atlético Güemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +91.0%.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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