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Racing Cordoba vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Racing Cordoba

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Telmo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.8%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-112.0%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.2%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 20.1% 16.1% 6.20 +14.8%

Over 2.5 43.6% 37.0% 2.70 +17.7%

Over 3.5 23.0% 16.7% 6.00 +22.8%

BTTS 48.2% 40.8% 2.45 +18.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 16.7% 6.00 +12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Cordoba1.4

San Telmo0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CORDOBA · PPG 1.80

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Cordoba (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

San Telmo (A) 20.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Cordoba face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Cordoba a 53% chance, the draw 27% and San Telmo 20%, so Racing Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Racing Cordoba and 0.7 for San Telmo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Cordoba are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.67 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +54.3%.

Racing Cordoba vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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