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Colon Santa Fe vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:30

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chaco For Ever

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-13.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.2%1-17.8%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-18.3%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-15.9%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-15.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 63.7% 1.57 +1.1%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 14.3% 16.7% 6.00 -8.5%

Over 2.5 52.2% 38.5% 2.60 +35.7%

Over 3.5 30.4% 18.2% 5.50 +67.2%

BTTS 48.5% 40.8% 2.45 +18.8%

Home O1.5 61.8% 48.8% 2.05 +26.7%

Away O1.5 19.1% 16.7% 6.00 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 3–0 11.4%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colon Santa Fe2.1

Chaco For Ever0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 2.20

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Colon Santa Fe (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +1.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Chaco For Ever (A) 14.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colon Santa Fe face Chaco For Ever in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colon Santa Fe a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Chaco For Ever 14%, so Colon Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.5 for Chaco For Ever (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colon Santa Fe are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Chaco For Ever. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +67.2%.

Colon Santa Fe vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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