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Quilmes vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Quilmes

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colegiales

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-17.3%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.8%1-110.1%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.1%2-17.0%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.0%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Draw 26.4% 35.1% 2.85 -14.9%

Away win 18.2% 21.1% 4.75 -8.1%

Over 2.5 39.3% 32.3% 3.10 +21.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% 14.3% 7.00 +22.3%

BTTS 46.4% 39.2% 2.55 +18.3%

Home O1.5 40.5% 39.2% 2.55 +3.3%

Away O1.5 18.9% 18.2% 5.50 +2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 55% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.8%

#2 0–0 15.7%

#3 2–0 15.1%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.4

Colegiales0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 2.00

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +2.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -14.9%

Colegiales (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 55% chance, the draw 26% and Colegiales 18%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Quilmes and 0.5 for Colegiales (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.3%.

Quilmes vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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