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Los Andes vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Los Andes

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-18.5%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.1%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-17.2%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 51.3% 1.95 +3.9%

Draw 26.9% 35.7% 2.80 -14.8%

Away win 19.8% 23.1% 4.33 -8.6%

Over 2.5 39.3% 33.9% 2.95 +15.9%

Over 3.5 19.7% 15.4% 6.50 +16.8%

BTTS 46.4% 42.6% 2.35 +9.0%

Home O1.5 38.5% 38.5% 2.60 +0.1%

Away O1.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Andes1.3

Deportivo Madryn0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.55

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Los Andes (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.8%

Deportivo Madryn (A) 19.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Andes face Deportivo Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Andes a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Madryn 20%, so Los Andes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Los Andes and 0.5 for Deportivo Madryn (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Andes are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.30 for Deportivo Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Los Andes vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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