Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / San Miguel vs Acassuso

San Miguel vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:30

San Miguel

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Acassuso

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-18.8%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-111.7%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 39.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.3% — — —

BTTS 47.0% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.0%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.1%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Miguel1.3

Acassuso0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.50

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Miguel (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Acassuso (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Miguel face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Miguel a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Acassuso 20%, so San Miguel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Miguel and 0.6 for Acassuso (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Miguel are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.55 for Acassuso.

San Miguel vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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