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Atletico Mitre vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.6%0-113.8%0-24.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.1%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.4%2-15.9%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 43.5% 2.30 -6.2%

Draw 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away win 27.1% 29.4% 3.40 -4.7%

Over 2.5 35.9% 31.3% 3.20 +14.9%

Over 3.5 17.8% 14.3% 7.00 +14.8%

BTTS 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

Away O1.5 20.1% 23.1% 4.33 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.4%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.6%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre0.9

Almirante Brown0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.40

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.63 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -6.2%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Almirante Brown (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Almirante Brown 27%, so Atletico Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atletico Mitre and 0.7 for Almirante Brown (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Atletico Mitre vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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