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Midland vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Midland

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Patronato

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-18.0%0-21.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.0%1-19.8%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-16.0%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.9%3-12.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 54.1% 1.85 -3.4%

Draw 28.2% 35.1% 2.85 -11.8%

Away win 19.6% 21.1% 4.75 -4.1%

Over 2.5 35.9% 34.5% 2.90 +4.1%

Over 3.5 17.8% 15.4% 6.50 +9.4%

BTTS 46.4% 42.0% 2.38 +10.4%

Home O1.5 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

Away O1.5 11.1% 19.0% 5.25 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.4%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.0%

#2 0–0 19.7%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.2

Patronato0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 1.91

PATRONATO · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -3.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.8%

Patronato (A) 19.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Patronato in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Patronato 20%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Midland and 0.4 for Patronato (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.90 for Patronato. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Midland vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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