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Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-110.2%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.2%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 44.4% 2.25 +4.2%

Draw 29.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Away win 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Over 2.5 43.6% 34.5% 2.90 +26.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 15.4% 6.50 +29.7%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 35.1% 2.85 +9.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron1.3

Ferro Carril Oeste0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.40

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 2.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.2%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.7%

Ferro Carril Oeste (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Ferro Carril Oeste in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Ferro Carril Oeste 24%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Moron and 0.8 for Ferro Carril Oeste (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.18 for Ferro Carril Oeste. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.7%.

Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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