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Hellas Verona vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Hellas Verona

PPG 0.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

AC Milan

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Away 67% chance

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-117.0%0-215.3%0-39.2%0-4+6.3%1 1-05.3%1-19.5%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-01.5%2-12.6%2-22.4%2-31.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.8% 14.7% 6.80 -26.6%

Draw 21.6% 26.0% 3.85 -16.8%

Away win 67.6% 66.2% 1.51 +2.1%

Over 2.5 42.0% 50.0% 2.00 -16.0%

Over 3.5 21.3% 29.0% 3.45 -26.5%

BTTS 35.7% 48.8% 2.05 -26.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob35.7%

A 68% / xG 0.6-1.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 17.0%

#2 0–2 15.3%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 0–3 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hellas Verona0.6

AC Milan1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 0.47

AC MILAN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Hellas Verona (H) 10.8%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -26.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.8%

AC Milan (A) 67.6%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hellas Verona face AC Milan in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hellas Verona a 11% chance, the draw 22% and AC Milan 68%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Hellas Verona and 1.8 for AC Milan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hellas Verona are averaging 0.47 points per game versus 2.00 for AC Milan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Hellas Verona vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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