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Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Norrby IF

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ostersunds FK

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.7%0-26.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.1%1-112.9%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-17.8%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 34.7% 2.88 +8.9%

Draw 27.0% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 35.2% 43.5% 2.30 -19.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.6% 1.83 -8.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 47.6% 2.10 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby IF1.2

Ostersunds FK1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY IF · PPG 1.29

OSTERSUNDS FK · PPG 1.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Norrby IF (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +8.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Ostersunds FK (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby IF face Ostersunds FK in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby IF a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Ostersunds FK 35%, so Norrby IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Norrby IF and 1.3 for Ostersunds FK (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby IF are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.38 for Ostersunds FK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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