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Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 13:00

Ljungskile SK

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandviken

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.3%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-111.8%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.2%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -7.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 41.7% 2.40 -21.3%

BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Away O1.5 29.6% 42.6% 2.35 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ljungskile SK1.6

Sandviken1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LJUNGSKILE SK · PPG 1.43

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ljungskile SK (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

Sandviken (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ljungskile SK face Sandviken in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ljungskile SK a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Sandviken 26%, so Ljungskile SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ljungskile SK and 1.0 for Sandviken (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.71 for Sandviken.

Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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