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GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 11:00

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.9%0-28.0%0-37.2%0-4+9.3%1 1-02.5%1-16.6%1-28.9%1-38.1%1-4+10.5%2 2-01.4%2-13.7%2-25.0%2-34.5%2-4+5.9%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-21.9%3-31.7%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.7% 28.6% 3.50 -24.9%

Draw 16.7% 27.8% 3.60 -23.9%

Away win 66.6% 51.3% 1.95 +29.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 57.1% 1.75 +17.3%

Over 3.5 49.6% 35.1% 2.85 +41.4%

BTTS 63.9% 62.5% 1.60 +2.2%

Home O1.5 35.0% 37.7% 2.65 -7.2%

Away O1.5 67.0% 54.1% 1.85 +23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.9%

A 67% / xG 1.1-2.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.6%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GIF Sundsvall1.1

Falkenbergs FF2.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.75

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.58 for Away, form 0.75 vs 2.00

Win probability 1X2

GIF Sundsvall (H) 16.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -24.9%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -23.9%

Falkenbergs FF (A) 66.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

GIF Sundsvall face Falkenbergs FF in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GIF Sundsvall a 17% chance, the draw 17% and Falkenbergs FF 67%, so Falkenbergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for GIF Sundsvall and 2.7 for Falkenbergs FF (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GIF Sundsvall are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Falkenbergs FF. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +57.6%.

GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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