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GOES vs Lisse Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

GOES

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Lisse

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.79) vs Home AVERAGE (1.21)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-19.5%0-212.3%0-310.7%0-4+13.1%1 1-02.6%1-16.7%1-28.7%1-37.6%1-4+9.3%2 2-00.9%2-12.4%2-23.1%2-32.7%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.8% — — —

Draw 14.2% — — —

Away win 78.0% — — —

Over 2.5 64.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.3% — — —

BTTS 47.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob47.1%

A 78% / xG 0.7-2.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.3%

#2 0–3 10.7%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GOES0.7

Lisse2.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOES · PPG 1.21

LISSE · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.79) vs Home AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

GOES (H) 7.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lisse (A) 78.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

GOES face Lisse in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GOES a 8% chance, the draw 14% and Lisse 78%, so Lisse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for GOES and 2.6 for Lisse (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GOES are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.79 for Lisse. This match finished 1-1.

GOES vs Lisse Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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