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Virtus Verona vs Alcione Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Virtus Verona

PPG 0.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Alcione

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.9%0-119.3%0-28.9%0-32.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.4%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.3%2-14.0%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 38.5% 2.60 -36.8%

Draw 35.2% 33.3% 3.00 +5.6%

Away win 40.5% 38.5% 2.60 +5.3%

Over 2.5 20.8% 46.5% 2.15 -55.3%

Over 3.5 7.4% 26.0% 3.85 -71.5%

BTTS 28.6% 55.6% 1.80 -48.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob28.6%

A 40% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.9%

#2 0–1 19.3%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 1–1✓ 12.4%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Virtus Verona0.6

Alcione0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.8% · O3.5 PROB 7.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIRTUS VERONA · PPG 0.56

ALCIONE · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.22) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Virtus Verona (H) 24.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -36.8%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.6%

Alcione (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Virtus Verona face Alcione in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Virtus Verona a 24% chance, the draw 35% and Alcione 41%, so Alcione are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Virtus Verona and 0.9 for Alcione (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Virtus Verona are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.22 for Alcione. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Virtus Verona vs Alcione Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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