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Vicenza vs Pergolettese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Vicenza

PPG 2.44 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pergolettese

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 83.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-12.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.6%1-15.4%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.0%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.2%3-16.1%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.3%4+-17.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.9% 80.0% 1.25 +4.9%

Draw 11.9% 21.1% 4.75 -43.5%

Away win 4.2% 9.1% 11.00 -53.8%

Over 2.5 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Over 3.5 36.0% 37.0% 2.70 -2.8%

BTTS 32.3% 47.6% 2.10 -32.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob32.3%

H 84% / xG 2.6-0.4 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.4%

#2 3–0 14.2%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 4–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vicenza2.6

Pergolettese0.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VICENZA · PPG 2.44

PERGOLETTESE · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away POOR (0.89) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vicenza (H) 83.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV +4.9%

Draw 11.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -43.5%

Pergolettese (A) 4.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vicenza face Pergolettese in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vicenza a 84% chance, the draw 12% and Pergolettese 4%, so Vicenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Vicenza and 0.4 for Pergolettese (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vicenza are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.89 for Pergolettese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Vicenza vs Pergolettese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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