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Union Brescia vs D. Bellunesi Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Union Brescia

PPG 1.78 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Bellunesi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-13.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.0%1-16.9%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.4%3-16.2%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-16.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.4% 74.1% 1.35 +5.8%

Draw 15.2% 23.8% 4.20 -36.2%

Away win 6.3% 11.9% 8.40 -47.1%

Over 2.5 53.2% 55.6% 1.80 -4.2%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 35.3% 48.8% 2.05 -27.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.3%

H 78% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.1%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 3–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Brescia2.3

D. Bellunesi0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BRESCIA · PPG 1.78

D. BELLUNESI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Union Brescia (H) 78.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV +5.8%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -36.2%

D. Bellunesi (A) 6.3%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV -47.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Brescia face D. Bellunesi in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Brescia a 78% chance, the draw 15% and D. Bellunesi 6%, so Union Brescia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Union Brescia and 0.5 for D. Bellunesi (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Brescia are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Bellunesi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Union Brescia vs D. Bellunesi Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions