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Trento vs Renate Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Trento

PPG 1.78 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Renate

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.2%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.8%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 52.6% 1.90 -11.1%

Draw 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 25.9% 27.4% 3.65 -5.5%

Over 2.5 41.2% 51.3% 1.95 -19.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -29.6%

BTTS 45.9% 57.1% 1.75 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trento1.4

Renate1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRENTO · PPG 1.78

RENATE · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.78), Away GOOD (1.72)

Win probability 1X2

Trento (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

Renate (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trento face Renate in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trento a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Renate 26%, so Trento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Trento and 1.0 for Renate (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trento are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.72 for Renate. This match finished 3-3.

Trento vs Renate Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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