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Wollongong Wolves vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong Wolves

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blacktown City

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.1%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.4%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 37.7% 2.65 +17.9%

Draw 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Away win 31.5% 43.5% 2.30 -27.6%

Over 2.5 61.1% 60.6% 1.65 +0.8%

Over 3.5 39.9% 38.5% 2.60 +3.7%

BTTS 62.5% 66.7% 1.50 -6.3%

Home O1.5 51.8% 46.5% 2.15 +11.4%

Away O1.5 41.9% 51.3% 1.95 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong Wolves1.6

Blacktown City1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG WOLVES · PPG 1.36

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong Wolves (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +17.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Blacktown City (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong Wolves face Blacktown City in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong Wolves a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Blacktown City 32%, so Wollongong Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Wollongong Wolves and 1.3 for Blacktown City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong Wolves are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.17 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Wollongong Wolves vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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