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Pro Vercelli vs Ospitaletto Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Pro Vercelli

PPG 1.39 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Ospitaletto

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.9%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.6%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-18.0%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

Draw 28.5% 32.3% 3.10 -11.7%

Away win 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

Over 2.5 39.4% 47.6% 2.10 -17.3%

Over 3.5 19.3% 26.3% 3.80 -26.7%

BTTS 45.7% 55.6% 1.80 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.7%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0✓ 12.6%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pro Vercelli1.2

Ospitaletto1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PRO VERCELLI · PPG 1.39

OSPITALETTO · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Pro Vercelli (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.7%

Ospitaletto (A) 31.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pro Vercelli face Ospitaletto in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pro Vercelli a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Ospitaletto 32%, so Pro Vercelli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pro Vercelli and 1.0 for Ospitaletto (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pro Vercelli are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.94 for Ospitaletto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Pro Vercelli vs Ospitaletto Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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