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Pro Patria vs Arzignano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Pro Patria

PPG 0.72 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Arzignano

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.9%0-28.5%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.2%2-16.6%2-25.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -16.9%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -21.6%

Away win 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

Over 2.5 49.6% 43.5% 2.30 +14.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 22.2% 4.50 +24.6%

BTTS 52.7% 51.3% 1.95 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.7%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pro Patria1.1

Arzignano1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PRO PATRIA · PPG 0.72

ARZIGNANO · PPG 1.39

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.39) vs Home POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Pro Patria (H) 26.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -21.6%

Arzignano (A) 47.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pro Patria face Arzignano in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pro Patria a 27% chance, the draw 25% and Arzignano 48%, so Arzignano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pro Patria and 1.6 for Arzignano (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pro Patria are averaging 0.72 points per game versus 1.39 for Arzignano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Pro Patria vs Arzignano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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