Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / Novara vs Cittadella

Novara vs Cittadella Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Novara

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Cittadella

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-110.4%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-113.1%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-18.2%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 41.7% 2.40 +8.2%

Draw 29.0% 32.3% 3.10 -10.1%

Away win 25.9% 36.4% 2.75 -28.8%

Over 2.5 35.7% 48.8% 2.05 -26.8%

Over 3.5 16.6% 27.4% 3.65 -39.4%

BTTS 41.6% 57.1% 1.75 -27.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.4%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novara1.3

Cittadella0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVARA · PPG 1.33

CITTADELLA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Novara (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.2%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.1%

Cittadella (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novara face Cittadella in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novara a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Cittadella 26%, so Novara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Novara and 0.9 for Cittadella (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novara are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.44 for Cittadella. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Novara vs Cittadella Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions