Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / Lecco vs Lumezzane

Lecco vs Lumezzane Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Lecco

PPG 1.72 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lumezzane

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-19.1%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-111.7%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.5%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 57.8% 1.73 -7.8%

Draw 29.3% 29.9% 3.35 -1.8%

Away win 17.4% 21.7% 4.60 -20.0%

Over 2.5 29.4% 48.8% 2.05 -39.7%

Over 3.5 12.4% 27.4% 3.65 -54.7%

BTTS 32.7% 54.1% 1.85 -39.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.7%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 0–0✓ 15.1%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecco1.3

Lumezzane0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.4% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCO · PPG 1.72

LUMEZZANE · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Lecco (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.8%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.8%

Lumezzane (A) 17.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecco face Lumezzane in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecco a 53% chance, the draw 29% and Lumezzane 17%, so Lecco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lecco and 0.6 for Lumezzane (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecco are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.39 for Lumezzane. This match finished 0-0.

Lecco vs Lumezzane Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions