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Ituzaingo vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:30

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 89.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+71.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-111.0%0-216.4%0-316.2%0-4+25.0%1 1-01.2%1-13.6%1-25.3%1-35.2%1-4+8.1%2 2-00.2%2-10.6%2-20.9%2-30.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 2.2% 23.1% 4.33 -90.5%

Draw 8.2% 34.7% 2.88 -76.4%

Away win 89.6% 52.4% 1.91 +71.1%

Over 2.5 64.0% 33.9% 2.95 +88.8%

Over 3.5 41.9% — — —

BTTS 26.3% 41.7% 2.40 -36.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob26.3%

A 90% / xG 0.3-3.0 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.4%

#2 0–3 16.2%

#3 0–4 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 0–5 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingo0.3

Arsenal Sarandi3.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.50

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingo (H) 2.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -90.5%

Draw 8.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -76.4%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 89.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +71.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingo face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingo a 2% chance, the draw 8% and Arsenal Sarandi 90%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Ituzaingo and 3.0 for Arsenal Sarandi (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingo are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Arsenal Sarandi. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +88.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Ituzaingo vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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