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Kjelsas vs Honefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 12:00

Kjelsas

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Honefoss

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.3%0-22.9%0-31.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.3%1-17.4%1-26.4%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.6%3-16.1%3-25.2%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.7%4+-24.9%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 56.5% 1.77 -12.7%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%

Over 2.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% 48.8% 2.05 -2.6%

BTTS 67.6% 71.4% 1.40 -5.4%

Home O1.5 60.6% 65.4% 1.53 -7.3%

Away O1.5 49.7% 45.5% 2.20 +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.6%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kjelsas2.2

Honefoss1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KJELSAS · PPG 2.50

HONEFOSS · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kjelsas (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -12.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Honefoss (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kjelsas face Honefoss in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kjelsas a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Honefoss 28%, so Kjelsas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Kjelsas and 1.7 for Honefoss (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kjelsas are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Honefoss. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Kjelsas vs Honefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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