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Giana Erminio vs Inter U23 Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Giana Erminio

PPG 1.39 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Inter U23

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-113.1%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 39.2% 2.55 -3.1%

Draw 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

Away win 30.4% 37.0% 2.70 -17.9%

Over 2.5 29.8% 43.5% 2.30 -31.5%

Over 3.5 12.7% 23.1% 4.33 -45.0%

BTTS 37.6% 52.6% 1.90 -28.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob37.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 0–0 14.9%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giana Erminio1.0

Inter U230.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIANA ERMINIO · PPG 1.39

INTER U23 · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.39) vs Away GOOD (1.72)

Win probability 1X2

Giana Erminio (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -3.1%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.2%

Inter U23 (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Giana Erminio face Inter U23 in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giana Erminio a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Inter U23 30%, so Giana Erminio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Giana Erminio and 0.9 for Inter U23 (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giana Erminio are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.72 for Inter U23. This match finished 2-0.

Giana Erminio vs Inter U23 Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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