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AlbinoLeffe vs Triestina Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

AlbinoLeffe

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Triestina

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.2%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-110.2%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.5%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 51.3% 1.95 +18.4%

Draw 21.5% 31.3% 3.20 -31.2%

Away win 17.8% 27.8% 3.60 -35.9%

Over 2.5 55.7% 47.6% 2.10 +17.0%

Over 3.5 33.3% 26.3% 3.80 +26.5%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 61% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AlbinoLeffe2.0

Triestina1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBINOLEFFE · PPG 1.50

TRIESTINA · PPG 0.44

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

AlbinoLeffe (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +18.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -31.2%

Triestina (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AlbinoLeffe face Triestina in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AlbinoLeffe a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Triestina 18%, so AlbinoLeffe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for AlbinoLeffe and 1.0 for Triestina (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AlbinoLeffe are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.44 for Triestina. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 3-0.

AlbinoLeffe vs Triestina Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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