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Rudes vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Rudes

PPG 2.46 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hrvace

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 83.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+37.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.0%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.3%1-15.5%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.1%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-16.9%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.5%4+-19.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.6% 60.6% 1.65 +37.9%

Draw 11.6% 31.3% 3.20 -62.9%

Away win 4.9% 20.8% 4.80 -76.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 41.8% — — —

BTTS 38.7% 51.3% 1.95 -24.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob38.7%

H 84% / xG 2.8-0.5 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 4–0 9.0%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rudes2.8

Hrvace0.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RUDES · PPG 2.46

HRVACE · PPG 0.69

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.46), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rudes (H) 83.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +37.9%

Draw 11.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -62.9%

Hrvace (A) 4.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -76.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rudes face Hrvace in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rudes a 84% chance, the draw 12% and Hrvace 5%, so Rudes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Rudes and 0.5 for Hrvace (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rudes are averaging 2.46 points per game versus 0.69 for Hrvace. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Rudes vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions