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DC United vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Toronto FC

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.9%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.7%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 50.0% 2.00 -1.4%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 54.6% 1.83 +11.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 32.3% 3.10 +16.3%

BTTS 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Home O1.5 54.4% 51.3% 1.95 +6.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.1%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United1.8

Toronto FC1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.14

TORONTO FC · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Toronto FC (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face Toronto FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 26%, so DC United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for DC United and 1.2 for Toronto FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Toronto FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.3%.

DC United vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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