Today / USA - MLS / New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS
Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 18 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.38
CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.57
xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York City FC face Chicago Fire in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Chicago Fire 30%, so New York City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for New York City FC and 1.4 for Chicago Fire (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.57 for Chicago Fire. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%.