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New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

New England Revolution

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlanta United FC

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-15.3%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-19.8%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-15.6%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 19.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England Revolution1.8

Atlanta United FC0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 2.44

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New England Revolution (H) 56.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atlanta United FC (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

New England Revolution face Atlanta United FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England Revolution a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Atlanta United FC 20%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for New England Revolution and 0.6 for Atlanta United FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England Revolution are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.62 for Atlanta United FC.

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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