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Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:15

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Cincinnati

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.7%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.0%1-16.6%1-25.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.2%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.7%3-25.6%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-17.4%4+-26.1%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Draw 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Away win 26.6% 25.6% 3.90 +2.2%

Over 2.5 68.8% 71.4% 1.40 -3.7%

Over 3.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

BTTS 69.5% 71.4% 1.40 -2.7%

Home O1.5 62.4% 67.6% 1.48 -7.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.5%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.7 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew2.5

FC Cincinnati1.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.38

FC CINCINNATI · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

FC Cincinnati (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face FC Cincinnati in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 52% chance, the draw 22% and FC Cincinnati 27%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Columbus Crew and 1.7 for FC Cincinnati (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for FC Cincinnati. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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