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New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 22:30

New York Red Bulls

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Charlotte

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.0%0-23.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.5%1-18.4%1-26.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.1%3-16.3%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.5%4+-24.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 47.2% 2.12 +8.5%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 26.9% 33.9% 2.95 -12.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 66.7% 1.50 +0.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 44.4% 2.25 +0.1%

BTTS 64.5% 69.4% 1.44 -7.1%

Home O1.5 61.8% 57.1% 1.75 +8.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 47.6% 2.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York Red Bulls2.1

Charlotte1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.57

CHARLOTTE · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New York Red Bulls (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +8.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Charlotte (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York Red Bulls face Charlotte in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York Red Bulls a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Charlotte 27%, so New York Red Bulls are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for New York Red Bulls and 1.5 for Charlotte (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York Red Bulls are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.67 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.6%.

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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