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Chattanooga vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Philadelphia Union II

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.5%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.2%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.6%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 23.0% 26.3% 3.80 -7.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 43.3% 2.31 -24.2%

BTTS 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 63.3% 1.58 -15.5%

Away O1.5 26.4% 38.3% 2.61 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 0%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga1.7

Philadelphia Union II0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA · PPG 2.00

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Philadelphia Union II (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga face Philadelphia Union II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Philadelphia Union II 23%, so Chattanooga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chattanooga and 0.9 for Philadelphia Union II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.11 for Philadelphia Union II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Chattanooga vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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