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Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City SC

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nashville SC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-19.2%0-29.8%0-36.9%0-4+6.0%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.2%2-14.7%2-25.0%2-33.6%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 33.6% 2.98 -13.7%

Draw 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Away win 53.3% 47.2% 2.12 +13.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Over 3.5 41.3% 41.7% 2.40 -0.9%

BTTS 61.6% 67.6% 1.48 -8.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Away O1.5 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.6%

A 53% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 1–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City SC1.0

Nashville SC2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 1.43

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.11 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City SC (H) 25.9%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -13.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Nashville SC (A) 53.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City SC face Nashville SC in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City SC a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Nashville SC 53%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orlando City SC and 2.1 for Nashville SC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City SC are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Nashville SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.5%.

Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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