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Carolina Core vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

Carolina Core

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chicago Fire II

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 58.8% — — —

Over 3.5 35.7% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 0%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carolina Core1.6

Chicago Fire II1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAROLINA CORE · PPG 1.60

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carolina Core (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chicago Fire II (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Carolina Core face Chicago Fire II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carolina Core a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Chicago Fire II 26%, so Carolina Core are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Carolina Core and 1.2 for Chicago Fire II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carolina Core are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.70 for Chicago Fire II.

Carolina Core vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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