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CF Montreal vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

CF Montreal

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Inter Miami

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.0%0-24.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-03.4%1-17.3%1-27.9%1-35.7%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.1%3-24.4%3-33.2%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.9%4+-23.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 31.7% 3.15 +10.9%

Draw 21.3% 25.6% 3.90 -10.2%

Away win 43.6% 49.5% 2.02 -11.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

BTTS 67.9% 73.5% 1.36 -7.7%

Home O1.5 55.3% 50.0% 2.00 +10.6%

Away O1.5 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob67.9%

A 44% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal1.8

Inter Miami2.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 1.57

INTER MIAMI · PPG 2.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +10.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Inter Miami (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face Inter Miami in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Inter Miami 44%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CF Montreal and 2.2 for Inter Miami (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.44 for Inter Miami. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

CF Montreal vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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