Today / USA - MLS / Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders

Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia Union

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.6%0-26.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.5%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-17.7%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 47.2% 2.12 -5.5%

Draw 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +1.3%

Away win 27.8% 32.8% 3.05 -9.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 60.6% 1.65 -22.8%

Over 3.5 27.1% 37.7% 2.65 -16.9%

BTTS 48.5% 64.5% 1.55 -24.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 54.1% 1.85 -35.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union1.2

Seattle Sounders1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 0.86

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -5.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.3%

Seattle Sounders (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union face Seattle Sounders in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Seattle Sounders 28%, so Philadelphia Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Philadelphia Union and 1.1 for Seattle Sounders (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.38 for Seattle Sounders.

Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions